What are the risk factors of hospital length of stay in the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) patients? A survival analysis in southwest China.

BACKGROUND: The global epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has resulted in substantial healthcare resource consumption. Since patients' hospital length of stay (LoS) is at stake in the process, an investigation of COVID-19 patients' LoS and its risk factors becomes urgent for a better understanding of regional capabilities to cope with COVID-19 outbreaks. METHODS: First, we obtained retrospective data of confirmed COVID-19 patients in Sichuan province via National Notifiable Diseases Reporting System (NNDRS) and field surveys, including their demographic, epidemiological, clinical characteristics and LoS. Then we estimated the relationship between LoS and the possibly determinant factors, including demographic characteristics of confirmed patients, individual treatment behavior, local medical resources and hospital grade. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox Proportional Hazards Model were applied for single factor and multi-factor survival analysis. RESULTS: From January 16, 2020 to March 4, 2020, 538 human cases of COVID-19 infection were laboratory-confirmed, and were hospitalized for treatment, including 271 (50%) patients aged ≥ 45, 285 (53%) males, and 450 patients (84%) with mild symptoms. The median LoS was 19 (interquartile range (IQR): 14-23, range: 3-41) days. Univariate analysis showed that age and clinical grade were strongly related to LoS (P<0.01). Adjusted multivariate analysis showed that the longer LoS was associated with those aged ≥ 45 (Hazard ratio (HR): 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.60-0.91), admission to provincial hospital (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.54-0.99), and severe illness (HR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.48-0.90). By contrast, the shorter LoS was linked with residential areas with more than 5.5 healthcare workers per 1,000 population (HR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05-1.65). Neither gender factor nor time interval from illness onset to diagnosis showed significant impact on LoS. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding COVID-19 patients' hospital LoS and its risk factors is critical for governments' efficient allocation of resources in respective regions. In areas with older and more vulnerable population and in want of primary medical resources, early reserving and strengthening of the construction of multi-level medical institutions are strongly suggested to cope with COVID-19 outbreaks.

Should we remain hopeful? The key 8 weeks: spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province and its comparative analysis with other provinces in China and global epidemic trends.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 spread worldwide quickly. Exploring the epidemiological characteristics could provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas where COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly. METHODS: The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and length of time from the first reported case to the end of the local cases (i.e., non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial (geographical) and temporal classification and visualization of the development and changes of the epidemic situation by layers through maps. RESULTS: In the first wave, a total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan, with an incidence rate of 0.6462/100,000. The closer to Hubei the population centres were, the more pronounced the epidemic was. The peak in Sichuan Province occurred in the second week. Eight weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, the health crisis had eased. The longest epidemic length at the city level in China (except Wuhan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) was 53 days, with a median of 23 days. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of China showed positive spatial correlation (Moran's Index > 0, p < 0.05). Most countries outside China began to experience a rapid rise in infection rates 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries experienced that rise earlier than the USA. The pandemic in Germany, Spain, Italy, and China took 28, 29, 34, and 18 days, respectively, to reach the peak of daily infections, after their daily increase of up to 20 cases. During this time, countries in the African region and Southeast Asian region were at an early stage of infections, those in the Eastern Mediterranean region and region of the Americas were in a rapid growth phase. CONCLUSIONS: After the closure of the outbreak city, appropriate isolation and control measures in the next 8 weeks were key to control the outbreak, which reduced the peak value and length of the outbreak. Some countries with improved epidemic situations need to develop a continuous "local strategy at entry checkpoints" to to fend off imported COVID-19.

[Moxibustion therapy in prevention and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): construction and application of non-contact diagnosis and treatment mode].

OBJECTIVE: To establish and promote the non-contact doctor-patient interactive diagnosis and treatment mode based on mobile internet for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with moxibustion therapy, and to observe the feasibility and effectiveness of the model in the pandemic. METHODS: A total of 43 first-line medical staff and 149 suspected and confirmed cases with COVID-19 [18 cases in medical observation period, 17 cases of mild type (cold dampness and stagnation in the lung), 24 cases of ordinary type (cold-dampness accumulated in the lung) and 90 cases in recovery period (qi deficiency of spleen and lung)] were included. A non-contact doctor-patient interactive diagnosis and treatment platform was established for the treatment of COVID-19 with indirect moxibustion plaster based on mobile internet. By the platform, the patients were instructed to use indirect moxibustion plaster in treatment. For the first-line medical staff and patients in the medical observation period, Zusanli (ST 36), Qihai (CV 6) and Zhongwan (CV 12) were selected. For the mild cases (cold dampness and stagnation in the lung) and the cases of ordinary type (cold-dampness accumulated in the lung), Hegu (LI 4), Taichong (LR 3), Zusanli (ST 36) and Guanyuan (CV 4) were selected. In the recovery period (qi deficiency of spleen and lung), Dazhui (GV 14), Feishu (BL 13), Geshu (BL 17), Zusanli (ST 36) and Kongzui (LU 6) were used. The treatment was given once daily for 40 min each time. The intervention lasted for 10 days. After intervention, the infection rate and the improvement in the symptoms and psychological status of COVID-19 were observed in clinical first-line medical staff and COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: In 10 days of intervention with indirect moxibustion plaster, there was "zero" infection among medical staff. Of 43 first-line physicians and nurses, 33 cases had some physical symptoms and psychological discomforts, mainly as low back pain, poor sleep and anxiety. After treatment, regarding the improvements in the symptoms and psychological discomforts, the effective rate was 78.8% (26/33) and the curative rate was 36.4% (12/33). Regarding the improvements in psychological discomforts, the effective rate was 58.3% (14/24) and the curative rate was 37.5 (9/24). Of 149 patients, 133 cases had the symptoms and psychological discomforts. After treatment, regarding the improvements in the symptoms and psychological discomforts, the effective rate was 81.2% (108/133) and the curative rate was 34.6% (46/133). Regarding the improvements in psychological discomforts, the effective rate was 76.5% (52/68) and the curative rate was 57.4 % (39/68). CONCLUSION: It is feasible to apply the indirect moxibustion plaster technique based on mobile internet to the treatment COVID-19. This mode not only relieves the symptoms such as cough and fatigue, improves psychological state, but also possibly prevents the first-line medical staff from COVID-19.